10.7% 2006年中国国内生产总值增长率

By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Friday, January 26, 2007
 
China's full-year growth for 2006, figures for which were released yesterday, has outstripped expectations, with gross domestic product expanding by 10.7 per cent, the fastest annual rise in more than a decade.

The new figure means that China has recorded double-digit economic growth for four consecutive years. It also means that if – as many expect – it records a similar pace of growth this year, China's economy could as early as 2008 leapfrog that of Germany's to make it the world's third largest in absolute terms.

However, the government's satisfaction yesterday at the management of such strong growth was tempered by a surge in inflation to 2.8 per cent in December, compared with the whole-year rise of 1.5 per cent.

The increase in inflation and continued strong overall growth lifted expectations of possible further tightening measures from the People's Bank of China, the central bank, in the near future.

The government's response to the GDP figures for the most part hailed the success of a credit crunch, which has slowed growth from a peak of 11.5 per cent in the second quarter to 10.4 per cent in the fourth.

“The government has avoided the economy shifting from fast growth into overheating,” said Xie Fuzhan, head of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Investment remained the largest driver of growth in 2006, backed by contributions from consistently strong consumption and rising net exports. However, the rate of growth of investment dropped dramatically in December, rising by only 13.8 per cent, compared with a full-year increase of 24 per cent.

But monthly investment figures are notoriously unreliable, and could have been further skewed last month by local officials keen to push the start of new projects into the new year.

Confidence in Beijing's ability to continue to manage and maintain such high growth prompted economists at investment banks, nearly all of whom had tipped below double-digit growth this year, to lift their forecast for 2007 to 10 per cent and above.
 
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